Difference between revisions of "IOTC Area Predictive analysis"

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(Approach)
(Approach)
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[[Image:barycentereffort.png|frame|Fishing hours aggregated per month along the entire period January 1997-December 2012]]
 
[[Image:barycentereffort.png|frame|Fishing hours aggregated per month along the entire period January 1997-December 2012]]
 
Furthermore, we associated the fishing hours in one single month to the barycenter of the areas interested by the fishing activity in that month. The monthly barycenters were calculated by weighting each 1 degree cell in the original dataset according to the fishing hours spent in that month in the cell. The resulting dataset can be found here. This contains unfolded information about the barycenters coordinates and their distance from the origin of the reference system.
 
Furthermore, we associated the fishing hours in one single month to the barycenter of the areas interested by the fishing activity in that month. The monthly barycenters were calculated by weighting each 1 degree cell in the original dataset according to the fishing hours spent in that month in the cell. The resulting dataset can be found here. This contains unfolded information about the barycenters coordinates and their distance from the origin of the reference system.
Figure 2 and 3 display the trends for the longitudes and latitudes of the barycenter. The signals show a periodic behaviour, which we investigated more accurately. In figures 4 and 5 we show the  
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Figure 2 and 3 display the trends for the longitudes and latitudes of the barycenter. The signals show a periodic behaviour, which we investigated more accurately. In figures 4 and 5 we report the trends for the amount of catch in tonnes of the Yellowfin Tuna and the related catch per unit of effort (CPUE) calculated as the ratio between the catch and the fishing hours.
  
 
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| [[Image:barycenterspectrogramlongitude.png|thumb|center|upright=2.5|Spectrogram for the longitude trend.]]
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| [[Image:barycenterspectrogramlatitude.png|thumb|center|upright=2.5|Spectrogram for the latitude trend.]]
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|}
  
[[Image:barycentereffortsamples.png|thumb|center|upright=2.5|Fishing hours trend in samples.]]
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{|style="margin: 0 auto;"
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| [[Image:Barycenterlongitudesamples.png|thumb|center|upright=2.5|Longitude trend in samples.]]
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| [[Image:Barycenterlatitudesamples.png|thumb|center|upright=2.5|Latitude trend in samples.]]
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|}
  
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In order to inspect the periodic behaviour of the trends of the coordinates, we applied Fourier analysis to the signals and traced the spectrograms. In both the cases, the analysis detected a period of in the samples, which corresponds to a periodic exploitation of some areas.
  
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{|style="margin: 0 auto;"
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| [[Image:barycentereffortsamples.png|thumb|center|upright=2.5|Fishing hours trend in samples.]]
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| [[Image:barycenterspectrogrameffort.png|thumb|center|upright=2.5|Spectrogram for the fishing hours trend.]]
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|}
  
[[Image:Barycenterlatitudesamples.png|frame|center|Latitude trend in samples.]]
 
  
  
 
[[Image:barycentercsquares.png|frame|center|Distribution of the presence of vessels on 1 degree csquares, in the entire period January 1997-December 2012]]
 
[[Image:barycentercsquares.png|frame|center|Distribution of the presence of vessels on 1 degree csquares, in the entire period January 1997-December 2012]]
 
[[Image:barycenterspectrogrameffort.png|frame|center|Spectrogram for the fishing hours trend.]]
 
 
{|style="margin: 0 auto;"
 
| [[Image:barycenterspectrogramlatitude.png|thumb|center|upright=2.5|Spectrogram for the latitude trend.]]
 
| [[Image:barycenterspectrogramlongitude.png|thumb|center|upright=2.5|Spectrogram for the longitude trend.]]
 
|}
 
 
  
  

Revision as of 14:09, 21 May 2014

Description

Hypothesis and Thesis

Approach

Our first attempt aimed to discover hidden periodicities in the exploitation of the ocean area. Thus, we traced the trend of the fishing hours effort in the period between January 1997 and December 2012. We summed the hours spent in the same month and eventually obtained the trend in figure 1.

Fishing hours aggregated per month along the entire period January 1997-December 2012

Furthermore, we associated the fishing hours in one single month to the barycenter of the areas interested by the fishing activity in that month. The monthly barycenters were calculated by weighting each 1 degree cell in the original dataset according to the fishing hours spent in that month in the cell. The resulting dataset can be found here. This contains unfolded information about the barycenters coordinates and their distance from the origin of the reference system. Figure 2 and 3 display the trends for the longitudes and latitudes of the barycenter. The signals show a periodic behaviour, which we investigated more accurately. In figures 4 and 5 we report the trends for the amount of catch in tonnes of the Yellowfin Tuna and the related catch per unit of effort (CPUE) calculated as the ratio between the catch and the fishing hours.

Distribution of the vessels longitudes for Yellofin Tuna by Purse Seine technique, in the entire period January 1997-December 2012
Distribution of the vessels latitudes for Yellofin Tuna by Purse Seine technique, in the entire period January 1997-December 2012


Catch quantity in tonnes for Yellofin Tuna, in the entire period January 1997-December 2012
CPUE for Yellofin Tuna, in the entire period January 1997-December 2012
Spectrogram for the longitude trend.
Spectrogram for the latitude trend.
Longitude trend in samples.
Latitude trend in samples.

In order to inspect the periodic behaviour of the trends of the coordinates, we applied Fourier analysis to the signals and traced the spectrograms. In both the cases, the analysis detected a period of in the samples, which corresponds to a periodic exploitation of some areas.

Fishing hours trend in samples.
Spectrogram for the fishing hours trend.


Distribution of the presence of vessels on 1 degree csquares, in the entire period January 1997-December 2012



Forecasted trend for latitude.
Forecasted trend for longitude.
Forecasted trend for fishing hours.

Aggregation on 12 Months

Aggregation on 12 months of the number of Purse Seine fishing hours.
Aggregation on 12 months of the catch quatities.
Aggregation on 12 months of the CPUE for Yellfin Tuna.
Aggregation on 12 months of the barycenters latitudes.
Aggregation on 12 months of the barycenters longitudes.

Analysis on the Most Exploited Csquare

Csquare code Exploitation (fishing hours)
3005 614135.3
1005 709254.3
3004 513798.8
3104 211621.1
3006 258669.6
3105 24718.3
1004 12235.1
3004 513798.8
3007 33038.7
Most exploited areas at 10 degrees resolution
Aggregation on 12 months of the CPUE for the most exploited ares with csquare code 3005.